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"DORNRÖSCHENSCHLAF" - OVERVIEW

PRINCIPLE "Tooth pulling": Very briefly, very painful - but then (almost) everything is over

Admittedly, my idea is pretty crazy, but I would like to put it up for discussion here:

If I understand correctly, don't the majority of infections break out after about 4 - 6 days? If one were to put the whole of Germany into a complete "deep sleep" for about 7-10 days, would almost all infections have to be stopped after this time? Unrecognized infections would be "dried out", recognized infections isolated (as already today) and thus also stopped? The whole of Germany "sleeps" 74 - 10 days - and after "waking up" is almost free of corona.

The prospect of a return to normal life in such a short time is so fascinating that every effort is justified.
Even the most hardened "thinkers" should be convinced by the prospect of an end to all restrictions very soon?

RULE : 

EVERYTHING will be closed for about 7 - 10 days. So also all (food) stores, schools, daycare centers, factories, businesses, offices, construction sites, gas stations and much more. No car traffic, no public transport, no sports, no events.

EXCEPTIONS:

Of course, there are no exceptions: medical and technical emergency / care services, vaccination centers, police, some pharmacies, institutions necessary in connection with the pandemic (such as RKI). Doctors and nurses (limited to current cases). Medical emergency rooms are open. Vital technical services such as fire brigade, THW, power plants etc. operate emergency services. If necessary, taxis are restricted to the exceptions mentioned above.

IMPORTANT:

one must not present this in public as "a further tightening of the shutdown" (people are tired of it) but on the contrary: a great chance to end these shutdown measures at short notice.

DESIGN DETAILS

TIME SCHEDULE:

Scientific examination of the assumptions made here
legal clarification of feasibility
advance notice of 1 to 2 weeks. (Sufficient time for preparations, stockpiling supplies, travel return, construction sites, etc.)

 BEGIN

E.g. on a Friday at 8 p.m.

THE END:

(10 day variant :) On Monday / Tuesday of the week after next: Opportunity for logistics, suppliers, retailers and similar to fill up the warehouses and shelves. The following day (Tuesday / Wednesday) return to normal life for everyone. To avoid overload, initially staggered shopping (e.g. alphabetically according to the first letter of the surname)

FOREIGN COUNTRIES:

initially rigorous entry restrictions, similar pattern as already today. This also applies to professional commuters. Of course, it would be very desirable to carry out this "deep sleep" across the EU (including other neighbors such as Switzerland and the UK). They have to be informed in advance, combined with the suggestion to participate. But since it is practically impossible to get all 27 EU countries under one roof, one should not wait for a uniform regulation, instead rely on a certain role model effect. Should the hoped-for effect occur in Germany, I could well imagine that other countries (in which the situation is in some cases much more critical) will follow suit quickly, i.e. a kind of domino effect occurs, as a result of which travel to the (EU ) - Abroad will be possible again relatively soon.

POLICE CHECKS:

Anyone who HAS to be on the go (e.g. nursing staff, emergency services) would download a "pass form" (numbered, QR code) from the network in advance and explain their exception. This form must be presented to the police during controls, who take a photo of it and reserve the right to carry out a random check by comparing data.

THE ECONOMIC "DAMAGE"

I estimate it to be much lower relative to today's strategies (lockdowns that never seem to end), because this measure is very limited in time and gives hope for an earlier upturn in the week but two after the start. Additional state aid would no longer be required to the same extent as it is today. Most of the purchases, investments, value creation processes, events, medical operations, etc. would be made up for after this relatively short period of time - or would only be possible again in the first place. So I suspect that these measures would save our economy billions.

CONTINUOUS SALARY PAYMENTS:

To a large extent, offset lost work as vacation. After the end of the pandemic, work extra shifts later to make up for lost time.

SPORT AND FREETIME:

Closure of all sports facilities, studios and events. For example, fitness training only at home is reasonable for this short period of time.

The only exception I could just imagine would be short walks / jogging runs according to this scheme: 

Everyone gets a time window of 50 minutes a day between 6:00 a.m. and 9:00 p.m., in which they can go outdoors on foot or by bike. Of course, in strict compliance with all existing AHA rules. Since there is (almost) no car traffic, nobody needs to drive "out into nature". So that not all people meet outside almost at the same time, strict separation according to the first letter of the last name: So roughly in this way: letters A and B from 6:00 to 6:50. Letters C to E from 7:00 a.m. to 7:50 a.m. Letters F and G from 8:00 to 8:50, and so on. In the case of couples / families / senior citizens, etc. with different surnames, one should irreversibly agree on the above-mentioned “pass form” for a name that cannot be changed within these 7 to 10 days. Otherwise, an identity card is sufficient, which must always be carried with you. A rolling system would also be conceivable, for example by 1 hour, so on the following day each letter would have its turn one hour later. (In the above example, the letters A and B on the second day from 7:00 a.m. to 7:50 a.m.). A publication of this rule on the net is not a problem. Dog owners would also have to cope with this.

LOCAL TRANSPORT:

No public transport. Employees of the above exceptions (e.g. doctors, nurses) come to work by private car, taxi or emergency services from bus companies. Additional costs, e.g. for taxes, will be reimbursed. Otherwise no private traffic. Since as a result there are hardly any accidents on the roads, the police and rescue services are relieved considerably and can also operate the emergency service with greatly reduced personnel costs.

LONG-DISTANCE TRANSPORT:

Source and destination traffic within Germany would automatically come to a standstill. A ban on transit traffic would be desirable and still to be examined. Possibly possible indirectly due to the closure of all petrol stations and rest stops.

 MEDIA:

TV and radio stations are interconnected (example such as night programs). Only the most important current programs. (Because almost all editors stay at home too)

OLD / NURSING HOME:

Visits only in really exceptional cases, e.g. the imminent death of a close relative, but as already today only after a rapid test.

LEGAL:

I am not sufficiently familiar with the legal assessment to judge whether it is possible to create the legal framework for this limited period of time to impose an absolute curfew. I am too deeply shocked every time I see the legal tricks that certain groups use. Perhaps the declaration of a state of emergency would be a possibility? Over 78,000 deceased in Germany alone, countless suffering and seriously ill, but above all the risk of new, even more dangerous mutations (B.1.1.7) should surely be justification enough?

PENALTY REINFORCEMENT:

It is not at my discretion to propose the level of penalties for violations, but in my opinion they should be very sensitive and in relation to the financial and human damage that threatens if the project fails.

VACCINATE:

The above suggestion is only intended as a supplementary measure to the vaccination campaign that is currently running. Of course, this must be continued with all vigor in order to achieve a lasting effect.

THE TIME AFTER:

For the time being, masks / clearance requirements continue to apply until current re-evaluations are available. No network is dense enough. But there will be individual cases, the origin of which can now be traced again.

OPEN QUESTIONS:

Under no circumstances do I want to pretend to be a self-proclaimed expert, there are so many connections that I, as a layperson, cannot assess. For example, the question of how a subsequent infection affects a closed group of people (family): 

Calculations (experiment)

Suppose there is an infected person with no symptoms in a closed household at the beginning of their slumber. Another assumption that the probability that an infection will not be detectable after 5 days is 20%, i.e. 0.2. This infected person will very likely infect at least 1 other person in the same household in the first few days, since they are not going into isolation. Assume that this additional person also has a 20% chance of an undetected infection. An infection would thus "sneak through" undetected during the entire Sleeping Beauty sleep, in order to infect other people afterwards. This is where I see the greatest danger of the model described here. So an algorithm is required 
Is the probability that two infections in a row in a chain of infections are not recognized, the product 0.2 times 0.2 or 4%? Perhaps such assessments indicate that one could possibly live with such a low error rate for the time being? That might mean a reduction in today's incidence rate to around 4% compared to today? Or another way of asking: By how many days would the Sleeping Beauty have to be extended in order to arrive at a product of, for example, 0.1 x 0.1 = 0.01, i.e. 1%? I would be very grateful for a statement from the technical side.

In households with more than 2 people, however, according to my considerations, the probability that an infection will not be detected decreases, because each of the subsequent infections would have to remain undetected on its own.  

 (NO) COMPARISON?:

Probably not quite appropriate, but it occurred to me what would happen if, overnight, for example, a nuclear power plant in the vicinity were to break down. How would we react? The number of victims (e.g. Chernobyl) was similar, but the shock came suddenly, not as creeping as this pandemic. Force majeure forced people to encapsulate themselves at home. I don't think that protesters who thought “outside the box” took to the streets with signs loudly calling for an end to the radioactive falldown? But the difference to then: no preparations, hardly any supplies, chaotic hamster purchases, windows had to remain closed, balcony and garden were taboo, and above all: no hope of a normal life after just a few days.

Perhaps we will succeed in using such a blatant example to make the seriousness of the situation clear in order to convince those fellow men who put their personal freedom above everything else.

Further procedure

I have discussed the above with many people in my environment over the last few months, and really everyone was of the opinion that this was the better solution, and preferable to the seemingly endless back and forth of the ongoing half-hearted shutdowns.  I'm all the more surprised that I've never found these thoughts reflected in public discussions. Nevertheless, since it concerns the considerations of laymen, it would be very desirable if these were examined first by respectable, scientific side the computations and suggested measures could be corrected. For example, I have found many very interesting calculation models on the website of the RKI.

Subsequently, the policy should take the topic seriously, not present it as a new of many previous shutdowns, but rather as an all-round - liberation blow, which gives us a very concrete prospect of a soon end hope.

Prospects 

We have already lived far beyond our means as a result of the current pandemic, the consequences of which will burden us for a long time to come. What will happen when further pandemics come?  Experts say they will definitely come, we just don't know the timing yet. Another half-hearted shutdown after another?  Hundreds of billions in new debt again? Vaccines will probably be developed and tested more quickly in the future as long as there are such great companies as Biontech, Curevac and others. But it will take a few months each time. We urgently need an effective and legally backed tool at hand to be prepared quickly and effectively for future pandemics. May these remarks be included in the discussions!

"rest days" at Easter 

The decisions to have "rest days" at Easter were very much advocated by the medical community; they would at least have made a small downward dent in the incidence curve. However, multiple protests and legal concerns led to their withdrawal. In my observation, a major cause of the fierce protests is also that the planned measures were perceived as an even further tightening of the current restrictions, of which people are now tired. The basic idea of the measures described above, however, aims in the opposite direction with regard to further shutdowns: No more half-hearted shutdowns, but ONE short, violent liberation blow - followed after only about 2 weeks by the extensive lifting of (almost) all previous restrictions. 

The legal foundations on a solid basis urgently need to be created! And if for the current pandemic the lead time is no longer sufficient, then urgently as preparation for possible following pandemics.

It is therefore to be feared that the curve will continue to rise steeply. The overlay of a declining curve as a result of the vaccinations can hardly be seen at the moment. It will go on like this for months until the vaccination rate will have reached the required "quorum", about 60 % - unless a new, even more resistant mutation emerges in the meantime, against which our current vaccines are of little help. It is a race against time.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Leonberg, April 08, 2021 Di e tm ar G a ig l

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Contact Impressum

Dipl.-Ing. Dietmar G aigl  

Ka nts tr. 26; D-71 2 29 L eo nb er g;

phone: 07152 33 66 55; E-mail: dietmar.gg@t-online.de

Private: this is a private, non-commercial idea of my own, I do not belong to any organization. There are several of them, most of which I welcome, as well as the existing measures from the government side. I just want to give an impulse to a very unconventional discussion.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

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